Iran War Revives Arctic Sea Route Between Asia and Europe | Hespress (MA) Article ID: 01M0KAKXDZV102HS1N2EM68SX9

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted key maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, is breathing new life into the Arctic shipping route connecting Asia and Europe. This renewed interest is marked by upcoming voyages, including a regular service to be launched by a Chinese vessel and a trial run by a South Korean ship in the coming weeks.

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The polar link can only be seasonal, from August to October. We need ships classified as polar, which costs more.

While climate change has contributed to making the Arctic route more accessible for navigation, experts caution that it is unlikely to replace established passages. The route's seasonality, typically viable only from August to October, necessitates specialized and more expensive ice-class vessels. Furthermore, current limitations mean that large container ships, which handle a significant portion of global trade, cannot utilize this passage.

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The Arctic link cannot be anything but seasonal, from August to October. We need ships classified as polar, which costs more.

Studies indicate that the Arctic route offers substantial reductions in transit distance and costs. Compared to the Suez Canal, distances can be cut by 30-40%, and by up to half when compared to the route around the Cape of Good Hope. This translates to halved transit times, potentially around twenty days, and reduced fuel consumption. However, the vessels currently testing the route, like the Chinese 'Dubai Tower' and the South Korean 'Panstar Akro', have significantly smaller capacities than typical large container ships.

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The two ships testing passage through the Arctic have ten times less capacity.

Experts suggest that the Arctic route's commercial potential remains limited, especially for general cargo. In 2023, a record 23 container ships used the passage, a small number compared to global maritime traffic. Projections indicate that by 2030, trade interest will remain focused on raw materials, particularly liquid and dry bulk goods like oil, gas, and grains, where cost reductions of up to 50% might be achievable. However, the overall volume of transport via this route is expected to remain constrained, with its strategic and political value potentially outweighing its immediate commercial benefits amidst rising geopolitical competition in the region.

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The commercial value of these routes appears less commercial than political, at a time when strategic competition between Russia, China, and the United States is escalating in the region.