Iranian attacks awaken Bahrain’s demons - opinion

The recent 40-day war between Israel and Iran, which involved missile and drone attacks and a naval blockade from Tehran, has sent ripples of anxiety across the Gulf states. However, nowhere has this anxiety risen as sharply as in Bahrain, the small archipelago monarchy that normalized ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords. The conflict has coincided with a resurgence of local support for Iran's Islamic regime, exacerbating social tensions that, combined with a preexisting economic crisis, now threaten to undermine the monarchy.

Bahrain's society is notably complex for its small population of under one million. The Sunni Al Khalifa dynasty, which migrated with its elite from the Arabian Peninsula 250 years ago, rules over a predominantly Shi'ite population that has inhabited the islands for centuries. This migrated elite has historically monopolized state resources, public-sector jobs, and economic opportunities, leading to higher unemployment and poorer conditions for the indigenous Shi'ites. Consequently, whenever socio-economic protests erupt, which have occurred roughly once a decade over the past century, deep-seated sectarian and historical grievances resurface.

Protesters often label the monarchy as a "foreign occupier" and a Saudi proxy. The regime, in turn, characterizes its Shi'ite opponents as Iran's fifth column, aiming to establish an Iranian-style theocracy. This narrative is fueled by Bahrain's historical status as an Iranian province, a claim Tehran intermittently revives. Over the years, both narratives have become somewhat self-fulfilling. The opposition has increasingly been led by Shi'ite clerics exiled in Iran, while Saudi forces intervened in 2011 during the Arab Spring to help suppress protests.

The American military base in Juffair, adjacent to the capital Manama, serves as a tangible representation of these tensions. Previously used by Britain, the former colonizer, until 1971, it now hosts the US Fifth Fleet, overseeing the Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula. For Washington, the base is a strategic asset against Iran and the Houthis. However, for many Bahrainis, it symbolizes a colonial remnant that protects their oppressive regime and signifies the "selling" of Muslim land to foreign powers. Demonstrators have frequently demanded the removal of American forces, and the Shi'ite opposition refers to the base as a "nest of colonialists."

Normalization with Israel in 2020 was met with similar sentiment, perceived as an arrangement lacking public legitimacy that abandoned Palestinians for the Al Khalifa's self-preservation. This feeling intensified after Israel signed a defense pact with Bahrain in 2021 and stationed military representatives in Juffair. Unlike the warm peace established between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain maintained a low-profile normalization, which yielded few economic benefits and reduced already limited public support. Bahrain's exiled opposition, active online, often mirrors the sentiments of Bahrainis who view these developments with deep suspicion.