Iranian leaders consider escalation as US fears military and cyberattacks, report says

Iran may be preparing to intensify its war with the United States, having grown more confident in its ability to strike targets across the Middle East, The New York Times reported, citing recent US intelligence assessments.

The report said Iran’s experience during the war has given its leaders a clearer view of the country’s military strengths and capabilities. That confidence has contributed to reluctance to accept an agreement that would fully end the conflict. Iran has resumed strikes against US targets in the region, while the United States has resumed attacks inside Iran.

US officials fear that Tehran could expand its campaign by targeting more ships in the Strait of Hormuz, attacking US infrastructure in the region and launching cyberattacks against essential systems inside the United States. Officials believe Iran-linked hackers were behind attacks on more than 100 US water systems in July. The attacks did not make the water unsafe to drink, but they caused disruptions that required manual overrides and precautionary boil-water advisories.

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Even if such attacks fail to meaningfully unsettle the American public, they can still play into a broader effort to exhaust domestic patience with this administration’s handling of the conflict

US oil and gas infrastructure may also be among the hackers’ targets, current and former officials told the newspaper, although those systems have stronger protections. The report said it remained unclear whether any energy systems had been breached.

Alex Orleans, a former US government cybersecurity contractor who tracks Iranian hacking groups, said even unsuccessful attacks could serve a political purpose. “Even if such attacks fail to meaningfully unsettle the American public, they can still play into a broader effort to exhaust domestic patience with this administration’s handling of the conflict,” he told The New York Times.

The report also said Iran believes it has gained leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and that dwindling US munitions stocks could limit Washington’s ability to sustain major new strikes. With the war unpopular partly because of high gas prices, Iranian leaders may seek to extend it through the US midterm elections. Representative Josh Gottheimer, a New Jersey Democrat, said, “The Iranians think they have maximum leverage. So, from their perspective, why not keep sticking it to the president?” Meta has also reported a network of Iran-origin Facebook and Instagram accounts focused on US politics, including anti-Republican views.

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The Iranians think they have maximum leverage. So, from their perspective, why not keep sticking it to the president?