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Iranians begging for more strikes are the ones with the most to lose

From Jerusalem Post · () English

Summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

Analysis Sources not specified Context piece
  • The US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding six weeks ago, but its survival is uncertain as talks resume and falter amid ongoing strikes.
  • Iran's Islamic Republic regime remains standing due to its non-democratic nature, allowing it to prioritize its survival over public concerns like fuel prices, unlike democratic nations.
  • Iranians abroad, particularly those at Nowruz parties in Brooklyn, urged continued strikes against the regime, revealing that those with the most to lose were the most insistent on action.

Six weeks after a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, the deal's status is tenuous, existing more as a rumor than a reality. Talks between the nations continue to stall and restart, with strikes occurring while both sides maintain the framework holds.

His guest, journalist and Iran analyst Jonathan Harounoff, spent two years at the UN: after the December protests began and the killing started, it took the Secretary-General two to three weeks to say anything. In Gaza or Lebanon, he says, it would have taken hours.

— Jacob LaznikJacob Laznik questions the UN's delayed response to events in Iran compared to other regions.

Host Jacob Laznik of the Jerusalem Post Podcast's Deep Dive argues that the situation has shifted, sidelining the people the agreement was meant to benefit. He questions how the Iranian regime remains in power despite empty water reserves, rationed power, and two rounds of war. Analyst Jonathan Harounoff explains that the regime's longevity stems from decades of prioritizing its survival, particularly its non-democratic nature, which shields it from public pressures like fuel prices or polling that affect democracies like the US and Israel.

The math does add up, he argues, because the Islamic Republic spent decades funneling everything into this moment. And its single greatest asset right now is that it isn't a democracy.

— Jonathan HarounoffJonathan Harounoff explains the Iranian regime's resilience by highlighting its non-democratic nature and long-term strategic focus.

Harounoff posits that Iran cannot win a conventional war and instead plans to outlast its adversaries, using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage. With Israel's elections approaching, Iran is not a top campaign issue. Harounoff notes that his online content receives significant views from within Iran, indicating a strong local interest. He concludes by sharing a poignant observation: Iranians he met at Nowruz parties in Brooklyn urged him to advocate for continued strikes against their own government, highlighting that those with the most to lose were the most vocal proponents of action.

It can't win a conventional war, so it plans to out-suffer them, with the Strait of Hormuz as the lever.

— Jonathan HarounoffJonathan Harounoff describes Iran's strategy of enduring conflict rather than winning it conventionally, using the Strait of Hormuz as a key pressure point.
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Originally published by Jerusalem Post. Summarized and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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