Iraq appears to delay militia disarmament as Iran-backed factions pressure Baghdad - analysis

Iraq's new Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi faces significant challenges as the country appears to be backtracking on its commitment to disarm Iran-backed militias. These militias have been responsible for hundreds of attacks on U.S. forces, kidnappings, assassinations, and regional destabilization. The initial deadline for placing militia weapons under state control was September 30, coinciding with the scheduled departure of U.S. troops who were in Iraq to support the fight against ISIS.

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Iraq will begin gradually consolidating weapons held by armed factions under state control after the international coalition’s scheduled departure on September 30, Iraq’s national security advisor said Sunday, calling the move a ‘strategic Iraqi decision’ and stressing that the process will be carried out through dialogue as opposed to armed confrontation.

However, Iraq is now indicating a delay, suggesting that the process of consolidating militia weapons will commence gradually only after the international coalition's departure. Iraq's national security advisor, Qasim al-Araji, described this move as a "strategic Iraqi decision," emphasizing that the process will be conducted through dialogue rather than armed confrontation. This shift in timing suggests a "bait and switch" tactic, potentially allowing the militias to retain their arms longer.

Recent visits by Iran's IRGC Quds Force head Esmail Qaani and Iran's speaker of parliament Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf to Baghdad underscore Iran's influence. Their presence aimed to showcase Iran's power and likely pressure Baghdad into concessions. National Security Advisor al-Araji stated that the weapons consolidation would begin "gradually" after September 30, and that ongoing dialogues were producing positive results regarding the disengagement of political parties from the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) brigades.

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After September 30, the process of restricting weapons to the state will begin gradually.

Despite assurances that all political forces agree on state control of weapons and that "The decision of war and peace is exclusively in the hands of the Iraqi state," the delay in disarmament raises serious concerns. The powerful Iranian-backed militias, many sanctioned by the U.S. as terrorist groups, have a history of violence and resistance to state authority. Their continued armament poses a significant threat to Iraq's stability and security.

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The decision of war and peace is exclusively in the hands of the Iraqi state.