Iraq plans to encircle Iran-backed factions without confrontation

Baghdad is reportedly preparing a strategic plan to gradually encircle and dismantle factions operating under the influence of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) without resorting to direct armed confrontation. This initiative is slated to be implemented after the September 30, 2026 deadline for bringing weapons under state control expires.

According to Iraqi sources, the government intends to deploy regular army forces, Counter-Terrorism Service units, and elite troops around the operational centers of these armed factions. The objective is to restrict the movement of supplies and personnel, effectively isolating these groups. Checkpoints will be established under the command of officers to monitor and seize weapons, with a particular focus on drones and missiles.

The strategy is designed to create a situation where the factions are compelled to either make a tactical error, such as moving prohibited weapons, which would then justify a military response, or to cede their positions to the official state institutions without a fight. This approach has been developed through extensive discussions among military and political leaders seeking to avoid direct conflict over the issue of weapons outside state control.

Field sources indicate that army and Counter-Terrorism Service forces have already begun deploying officers to monitoring checkpoints in several areas and on highways as a preliminary phase of the plan. These checkpoints have reportedly been successful in intercepting drone shipments in recent weeks. The plan's primary focus is on key strongholds like Jurf al-Sakhar, associated with Kata'ib Hezbollah, and Jurf al-Nadaf, linked to Harakat al-Nujaba, both located south of Baghdad.