Is China’s economy broken?

Dr. Logan Wright, an expert on the Chinese economy, challenges conventional analyses of China's economic performance, suggesting it is frequently viewed through a unique lens due to its political structure and stated long-term objectives. In a podcast with The Straits Times, Wright, who has extensive experience living and working in Beijing and Hong Kong, argues that this distinct perspective can distort the interpretation of incoming economic data.

Wright points to several troubling aspects of China's current economic landscape. He questions the reliability of official economic data, contrasting it with actual growth figures. The property sector's struggles and the worsening problem of excess industrial capacity are identified as major concerns. Furthermore, he touches upon the potential impact of China's declining birth rates and increasing death rates on future economic growth.

His insights are drawn from his work at Rhodium Group, a US-based research and advisory firm, where he leads China markets research. Wright is also the author of the upcoming book "Broken China: How the Economic Miracle Shattered and What it Means for the World." The discussion also explores policy efforts aimed at boosting domestic consumption and the implications for Southeast Asia, urging regional attention to China's economic trajectory.

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They tend to look at the Chinese system and say this is a different political system, it produces outputs that are long-term plans. Therefore, we filter incoming data in terms of how China is doing based on its long-term plans and its declared goals. From a financial system perspective, it looks entirely different.