Is Netanyahu hoping for a deadlock in the upcoming elections? - opinion

Israel's political landscape is currently characterized by a rigidity that fosters stalemate, a situation the author likens to the predictable outcome of the 1959 elections, though fundamentally different. In 1959, Mapai secured a dominant 47 seats, offering a clear, albeit unchanging, political direction. Today, however, no party is predicted to achieve such a decisive victory, leading to a scenario where the most any side can hope for is a marginal win, insufficient for genuine stability.

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The elections will bring about no change: Mapai will win, and what was is what will be.

This man-made rigidity stems from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's conviction that only his all-Right/religious coalition can ensure his political survival. Conversely, the opposition bloc, comprising fragile Right, Center, and Left factions, rallies under the unifying slogan of "just not Bibi." This dynamic creates a self-perpetuating cycle of political deadlock, where the primary objective for many appears to be preventing Netanyahu's return to power rather than forging a stable governing alternative.

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Today, our political situation is again stuck in a sort of rigidity, but one that is very different from 1959’s. This rigidity once again encourages stalemate: a situation in which the most either side can hope for is a very marginal victory – nothing that promises real stability, with no party predicted to receive more than half of the number of seats Mapai had received in 1959.

Within this environment, MK Benny Gantz (Blue and White) is presented as the sole figure attempting to break this paradigm. However, his chances of surpassing the 3.25% qualifying threshold for the upcoming elections are deemed negligible. The article notes that the final election results remain uncertain until September 28, the deadline for list registration, as the exact composition of participating lists is still unknown.

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This isn’t a preordained situation, but rather is man-made. Every generation it has different causes. Today, it results from the fact that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is convinced that only his all-Right/religious coalition can ensure his political survival (which seems to be his be-all and end-all), while the rather fragile Right/Center/Left bloc facing him cooperates with this game with the “just not Bibi” slogan.

Currently, three center-right or right-wing groups are contemplating participation, aiming to attract disillusioned former Likud voters. These potential lists reportedly agree on the necessity of enlisting Haredim into military or national service but diverge on which other parties they would refuse to form a coalition with. Polls suggest that if these groups run independently, none are likely to clear the electoral threshold, leaving them with approximately one month to consolidate their efforts. The article also briefly touches upon the uncertainty surrounding the number of Arab lists and the potential participation of Ra'am.

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In the upcoming elections, only MK Benny Gantz (Blue and White) seeks to break this paradigm – but his chances of passing the 3.25% qualifying threshold are naught.