Is UK facing drought for second summer in a row?

Much of the UK is facing a second consecutive summer of dry conditions, with prolonged heatwaves and a significant lack of rainfall.

Central England has recorded its longest dry spell since 1995, with some areas experiencing 33 consecutive dry days. Overall rainfall this summer has been below average across the UK, though regional variations exist. Parts of eastern and north-eastern England have received only 26% of their expected summer rainfall by mid-July. This follows a dry spring in similar regions.

Despite the dry spell, a full drought has not yet been declared as quickly as in the previous year. This is attributed to heavy rainfall during the autumn and winter months that replenished aquifers, rivers, and reservoirs. However, the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology warns that "flash droughts," characterized by a rapid transition from wet to dry conditions, are likely to occur more frequently and with greater intensity.

The immediate forecast offers little relief. High pressure is expected to dominate for the remainder of the week, bringing minimal rainfall. A few light showers are possible near coasts in southeast England and East Anglia, as well as in northern Scotland. Over the weekend, rain-bearing weather fronts may approach from the northwest, but much of this precipitation is forecast to fall across Northern Ireland and Scotland, potentially fizzling out before reaching the driest areas in the south and east.

Longer-range predictions for the rest of the summer suggest a continuation of mainly dry and warm weather, particularly in the south. While summer thunderstorms are possible, the overall outlook indicates a risk of drought conditions persisting or developing further. The water industry and agriculture sectors are likely to be significantly affected by these ongoing dry conditions.