Is Zaidi’s Govt Gradually Leaving Iran’s Orbit?

An Arab diplomatic initiative is gaining momentum, aiming to pressure for a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon. This effort runs parallel to broader talks involving Pakistan and seeks to de-escalate the conflict that has drawn Lebanon into a wider regional contest between Iran and the United States, and Israel and Hezbollah.

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the situation in Lebanon will remain as it is

Sources indicate a phased approach, beginning with the enforcement of a ceasefire. This would be followed by subsequent steps, including withdrawals by both the Israeli army and Hezbollah fighters, the deployment of the Lebanese army, and the handover of Hezbollah's weapons. International guarantees would back this process, aiming to prevent renewed fighting and facilitate the return of residents to restore stability in southern Lebanon.

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Israel would “retain freedom of action against any threat inside Lebanese territory.”

Despite these diplomatic moves, Israeli leaks suggest no immediate de-escalation on the Lebanese front. An Israeli source quoted by Channel 14 stated that the situation would remain as it is, with Israel retaining freedom of action. The source also claimed that Iran's attempts to link different arenas had failed.

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Iran’s attempts to link the arenas have failed.

However, Lebanese sources view the regional and Lebanese files as practically intertwined. They believe any US-Iranian understanding will inevitably impact the situation in Lebanon. The Arab push is also working to shape a unified position that could support ongoing negotiations, potentially paving the way for a tripartite meeting between the President, Parliament Speaker, and Prime Minister to assess the situation and advance the ceasefire plan. Meanwhile, Lebanon continues its independent track through bilateral negotiations with Israel in Washington.

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Any US-Iranian understanding “will inevitably reflect on the Lebanese file, and we hope it will,”