Israel and the Middle East are one election away from peace - opinion

Gershon Baskin, writing on May 23, 2026, suggests that peace between Israelis and Palestinians may be within reach, a notion that seems counterintuitive given the recent conflict and ongoing settlement expansion.

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For the first time in many years, I believe peace between Israelis and Palestinians may be closer than most people imagine.

Baskin posits that the fundamental shift in the Middle East's strategic landscape, rather than any change in Hamas or the occupation, is the key driver. He argues that beneath the surface of trauma and despair, the groundwork for a regional political settlement is more robust than at any point since the Oslo Accords.

The author highlights that the parameters for peace, a two-state solution based on 1967 lines with land swaps, security arrangements, Jerusalem as a shared capital, and regional guarantees, are well-established. The primary obstacle, he contends, is not a lack of diplomatic knowledge but a deficit of political courage.

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We do not suffer from a lack of diplomatic knowledge. We suffer from a lack of political courage.

The Middle East of 2026, Baskin explains, is characterized by a shared interest in regional integration, economic development, and security cooperation among nations like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and others. There's a growing understanding that rebuilding Gaza and stabilizing the region necessitates a political future for Palestinians.

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Military force alone cannot solve this conflict. Israel can destroy Hamas’s military infrastructure and occupy all of Gaza. But Israel cannot destroy the Palestinian national movement and aspiration for freedom, just as Palestinians could not destroy Israel through terror and violence.

Baskin asserts that military force alone cannot resolve the conflict, as demonstrated by repeated wars that end with the same unresolved political questions. He believes the upcoming Israeli election is crucial, as a different government could make previously impossible steps politically viable, including a Saudi-led regional initiative and renewed negotiations. He also identifies former U.S. President Donald Trump as a potentially unique figure, capable of brokering a "strategic regional transaction" due to his credibility with the Israeli right.

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Under a different Israeli government, many things that appear impossible today could suddenly become politically possible: a serious regional initiative involving Saudi Arabia, international support for rebuilding Gaza, renewed Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, and eventual full normalization between Israel and the whole Arab world.