Israel at a strategic crossroads nearly three years after Oct. 7 attack

Nearly three years after Hamas' devastating attack on October 7, Israel finds itself at a strategic crossroads, grappling with unresolved conflicts and a complicated international standing. The country maintains military presences in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, yet its primary goals remain elusive. The relationship with its key ally, the United States, has become more complex, particularly following a new US-Iran memorandum of understanding that reshapes the regional battlefield.

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There is a great gap between the military picture and the strategic picture, which is one of overall defeat and collapse of Israel’s strategy.

Israel has projected significant military power across the region, leading to widespread destruction in Gaza and southern Lebanon, and conducting airstrikes in Syria, Iran, Yemen, and Qatar. However, experts note a disconnect between military actions and strategic outcomes. "There is a great gap between the military picture and the strategic picture, which is one of overall defeat and collapse of Israel’s strategy," Chuck Freilich, a former Israeli national security adviser, told The Media Line. He added that Israel has not succeeded in destroying Hamas or unseating it from power, and Hezbollah remains a threat.

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It did not succeed in destroying Hamas or unseating it from power, Hezbollah is coming back despite downgrading its capabilities greatly, and Iran believes with good reason that it won the war by surviving an attack by the world’s superpower and greatly out-negotiated the US, coming ahead on the diplomatic level as well.

Despite these challenges, budding alliances under the Abraham Accords have survived, and interest in them has grown due to the threat from Iran. Nevertheless, Israel's diplomatic and political situation internationally is significantly worse, especially with the United States. "Israel has been far more isolated than this during its history," said Prof. Jonathan Rynhold of Bar-Ilan University. The situation across Israel’s main fronts remains complex, with Iran consistently viewed as the primary strategic threat driving a network of surrounding armed groups.

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All of Israel’s enemies are significantly weaker; there is wider interest in the Abraham Accords because of the threat from Iran, but Israel’s diplomatic and political situation internationally is much worse, particularly in the United States.