Israel-Lebanon deal may entrench stalemate rather than end war - analysis

A recently signed security framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon is drawing criticism from regional analysts and politicians who believe it risks solidifying a stalemate instead of resolving the conflict with Hezbollah. The deal's central tenet ties Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon to the disarmament of the Iran-aligned group, a condition widely considered unachievable.

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This is not an agreement, it is an imposed settlement.

Analysts point out that Hezbollah has explicitly rejected disarmament, and the Lebanese government lacks the authority to enforce such a demand. This perceived unattainability of the disarmament condition provides Israel with political justification to maintain a long-term military presence in southern Lebanon, a region it entered following Hezbollah's cross-border actions in solidarity with Iran. The agreement thus appears to offer Israel a diplomatic cover for its continued military engagement.

The framework also places Lebanon in a difficult position, imposing obligations it cannot realistically meet while hindering its ability to fully reclaim sovereignty. The deal clashes with Lebanon's complex political landscape, a fragile sectarian system built on power-sharing, which is ill-equipped to confront the country's most powerful armed faction. A senior Lebanese politician, speaking anonymously, described the agreement as an "imposed settlement" that places the "burden" entirely on Lebanon, creating a structure that enables indefinite Israeli presence.

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This agreement has put all the burden on Lebanon.

Michael Young, a Beirut-based analyst, echoed this sentiment, stating the agreement "creates a structure that allows the Israelis to remain (in southern Lebanon) indefinitely." Fawaz Gerges, a Lebanese scholar at the London School of Economics and Political Science, deemed the deal "born dead" due to its fundamental flaw: hinging on an impossible condition. Gerges noted that Israel has already established a significant buffer zone in southern Lebanon, and by linking any withdrawal to Hezbollah's disarmament, the deal risks legitimizing this buffer zone as a permanent fixture.

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the deal was 'born dead' and is structurally flawed, hinging on a condition that is impossible to meet in practice.