Israel-Lebanon peace deal needs realism to succeed on the ground

On paper, a trilateral agreement signed between Israel, Lebanon, and the United States offers a genuine hope for peace between the two nations. However, the true test of this hope will be determined on the ground, particularly in southern Lebanon, where the conflict has historically simmered.

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the agreement invokes the word "peace," the true test, as is so often the case in the Middle East, will be determined on the ground, in southern Lebanon.

The framework's most significant provision for Israel is the explicit confirmation that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) can remain deployed in southern Lebanon until non-state armed groups are verified as disarmed and their infrastructure dismantled. Under the agreement, the IDF would withdraw from initial pilot zones, with the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) taking over. The LAF would then facilitate the return of Lebanese civilians to these areas. This arrangement serves as a crucial test case for Lebanese authorities: can they effectively keep Hezbollah out once the IDF is gone?

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pending the verified disarmament of non-state armed groups and dismantlement of associated infrastructure.

Past experiences, such as UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which was also intended to keep Hezbollah north of the Litani River, have shown Hezbollah's ability to rebuild its military strength under the watch of international forces. Israeli officials have frequently expressed frustration over the Lebanese forces' failure to disarm Hezbollah after previous ceasefire agreements. If Lebanon is serious about reclaiming its sovereignty from Hezbollah, it must now secure its own territory, a task that has cost many IDF soldiers their lives.

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Will Lebanese authorities be able to keep Hezbollah out once the IDF is gone?

The agreement could force the Lebanese government to make a critical choice: enforce its own authority or continue allowing the country's future to be held hostage by a terrorist organization aligned with Iran. This confrontation brings Beirut face-to-face with the central issue it has long avoided – acknowledging that Hezbollah, not a legitimate partner, is the primary obstacle to rebuilding the nation. Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem's vehement opposition to the framework, denouncing it as a "humiliation" and a surrender of Lebanese sovereignty, further suggests the potential impact of the deal.

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If Lebanon is serious about reclaiming its sovereignty from Hezbollah, it must finally do its part to secure its own territory – a task for which far too many IDF soldiers have already paid with their lives.