Israel's war with Hezbollah looms over planned U.S.-Iran deal signing

Israel's ongoing strikes in Lebanon are casting a shadow over a planned U.S.-Iran deal signing, creating a complex geopolitical landscape.

President Trump announced an agreement with Iran, stating the U.S. naval blockade would lift after the memorandum of understanding is signed on Friday. However, Iran insists that continued Israeli military action in Lebanon violates the agreement. Meanwhile, Iranian tankers have been observed crossing the U.S. naval blockade line, adding to confusion for shippers who are demanding clarity and security guarantees before resuming normal operations.

Trump has publicly criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's handling of the conflict with Hezbollah, calling recent strikes "vicious" and "too much." He expressed frustration that these actions are complicating efforts to finalize the deal with Tehran.

Adding to the confusion, there have been mixed messages regarding the status of the U.S. naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz. While Trump initially announced its removal, a senior Iranian diplomat later claimed the blockade had been lifted. Major shipping companies remain hesitant, stating they will only resume normal operations once the deal's details are clear and safety assurances are provided. Jakob Larsen, head of safety and security at BIMCO, noted the situation remains volatile and risky for shipping.

Israeli forces have reportedly carried out airstrikes in several areas of south Lebanon, despite Iran's assertion that the agreement includes Lebanon. Lebanon's National News Agency reported raids targeting specific areas, while Iran's Foreign Minister indicated that continuing Israeli actions would be a violation.

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Due to lack of details and a history of overly optimistic reassurances, we believe the security situation for the shipping industry remains volatile, and we still consider it very risky for ships to commence transits at this point.