Israel to vote in October as Netanyahu support slips amid controversies

Israel is set to hold general elections on the last Tuesday in October, a vote that will serve as a critical referendum on the leadership of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the country's longest-serving premier. Current polling data indicates that Netanyahu's Likud party might face significant challenges, with recent surveys showing a slip in support that could prevent it from being the largest party in the 120-seat Knesset.

The election date, October 27, falls on the final possible day before the Knesset's four-year term expires this Friday. Netanyahu has been under sustained criticism from various political factions. Accusations include mismanaging recent conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and with Iran, as well as shirking responsibility for security lapses that preceded Hamas's deadly attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023. Despite ceasefires technically being in place, Israeli forces remain in occupied territory in southern Lebanon and Gaza. On Sunday, Israeli strikes in Gaza reportedly killed at least six people, including a nine-year-old girl, according to local health authorities.

Netanyahu's supporters, however, argue that he has strengthened Israel's regional power and pursued crucial military operations, including against Iran, to counter existential threats. Polling from Israel's public broadcaster KAN and Channel 12 suggests Likud could secure 23 seats, placing it neck-and-neck with the new Yashar party, founded by former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot. Channel 12's polling positions Eisenkot as Netanyahu's most likely next political challenger.

Conversely, polling from the right-wing Channel 14 predicts a stronger showing for Likud, potentially granting it 33 seats compared to Yashar's 21. The Beyachad bloc, a joint ticket led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, is projected to win only 16 seats, indicating a decline in their support since forming their alliance. Given the fragmented political landscape and the necessity for coalition building, smaller Arab-Israeli parties may play a pivotal role in post-election negotiations to form a majority government. Many within these communities have expressed concerns about high crime rates and a feeling of neglect since October 7.

Netanyahu's current government, a coalition that includes hardline Jewish nationalist parties, has seen controversial figures appointed to key ministries. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir are among those whose appointments have drawn scrutiny. Smotrich, in particular, has overseen a significant expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, developments widely considered illegal under international law.