Israel, Turkey maneuver toward potential clash over influence in Syria - analysis

Israel's recent airstrike on Syria is part of a broader context of rising tensions with Turkey over influence in the war-torn nation. Some Israeli officials believe a future clash between the two countries in Syria is possible, viewing Damascus as dominated by "jihadists" allied with Turkey's ruling AKP party. This perception fuels discussions in Jerusalem about a potential "Sunni" threat replacing the Iranian-led axis.

Israel's policy in Syria has evolved from targeting Iranian entrenchment to extending its ground control into a buffer zone along the border. Despite thousands of precision strikes aimed at curbing Iran's weapon smuggling to Hezbollah, the Campaign Between the Wars had limited success. Following the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, Israel continued its attacks rather than engaging with the new government. Tensions escalated in 2025 when Israel declared it would protect the Druze minority in southern Syria, leading to discussions about a potential independent Druze state, an initiative opposed by Damascus and Amman.

Turkey, meanwhile, has become a significant supporter of the new Syrian government. After initially backing Syrian rebels to fight Kurdish forces, Ankara seized the opportunity post-Assad to collaborate with President Ahmed al-Shara'a. This policy shift, joined by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, has led to engagement with Damascus. Israel's expanding mission creep in Syria, from combating Iran to attacking the new government and backing the Druze, has created an open-ended policy that could potentially lead to confrontations with Turkey.