Israel, Turkiye and the new regional reordering

An Israeli airstrike on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in northwestern Syria on Tuesday has drawn condemnation from the United States, the United Kingdom, the United Nations, and regional nations. Israel claimed it acted on intelligence regarding Turkish military movements to the site. However, U.S. Ambassador to Turkiye Tom Barrack revealed that U.S. intelligence, after receiving the information six days prior, conducted its own review and found no evidence to support Israel's claim. This event highlights a significant shift in regional dynamics, suggesting Israel may no longer be the central focus of a broader regional reordering. Ankara viewed the Israeli attack as a provocation but opted against escalation, framing the issue as a dispute between Israel and the U.S., and Israel and the international community, rather than a bilateral matter with Turkiye. Normally, a deconfliction mechanism exists between Turkiye and Israel, but Israel did not warn Turkiye about this attack, despite the potential for a military response. Barrack called for a deconfliction mechanism, emphasizing its effectiveness relies on the willingness of involved parties. The article suggests Israel's actions, including notifying neither Turkiye nor the U.S. and acting on unsubstantiated intelligence, may be a tactic to boost Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's electoral campaign, potentially seeking escalation on various fronts ahead of Israeli elections. Turkiye faces the challenge of avoiding Netanyahu's provocations while preventing the normalization of such aggression, which may require direct U.S. presidential intervention. Beyond immediate security concerns, Syria has fundamentally altered the relationship between Turkiye and Israel. While historically Turkiye's concerns about Israel were rooted in the Palestinian issue, Ankara now perceives Israeli actions in Syria as a direct threat to its national security, viewing Israel increasingly as a national security challenge rather than solely through the lens of Palestinian solidarity.

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The US had received this intelligence from the Israelis six days before the attack. However, US intelligence conducted its own due diligence and found no basis for the claim.