Israel wonders if Lebanon can stand up to Hezbollah and emerge victorious as talks renew - analysis

Israel and Lebanon are set to begin another round of direct talks in Rome, with the United States mediating, to move a political understanding toward implementation. The core of the discussion revolves around a pilot project in southern Lebanon, where Israel is expected to gradually withdraw from two defined areas and hand them over to Lebanese Army control.

The framework agreement, signed on June 26, stipulates that the Lebanese Army will deploy forces, dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure, and prevent the organization from reestablishing a military presence. If successful, this pilot project could be expanded to other areas, potentially leading to a broader Israeli withdrawal. The plan also includes a civilian dimension: the reconstruction of villages and the return of displaced residents.

However, significant challenges remain. The US administration is keen to determine if the Lebanese Army can effectively manage the territory and restore civilian life without Hezbollah exploiting its networks. Details of the IDF withdrawal, the specific Lebanese units involved, and the criteria for confirming Hezbollah's removal are still points of contention. Lebanon desires pilot areas with a real Israeli presence to present the withdrawal as a diplomatic achievement, while Israel prefers controlled transfers in limited areas to reduce security risks.

As the talks commence, the pilot project has not yet launched. The IDF has not completed its withdrawal from the first area, the Lebanese Army has not fully assumed responsibility, and no agreed-upon public timetable exists. The boundaries of the areas and the criteria for Hezbollah's disarmament are particularly disputed. Israel maintains its troops will stay as long as Hezbollah remains armed, while Hezbollah rejects disarmament efforts.

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