Israeli security officials fear renewed fighting as Khamenei, IRGC leaders seek revenge - analysis

Israel's security establishment is on high alert, closely watching Iran after the funeral of Ali Khamenei, which included leaders from various terrorist organizations. Officials are concerned that the ceremony was partly an effort to legitimize Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father and was reportedly injured in the attack that killed him. Many leaders opted to send representatives rather than attend in person.

Despite economic pressures and ongoing severe sanctions, Iran is reportedly working to restore its military capabilities and economy. However, the underlying economic conditions remain dire, serving as a significant pressure point on the regime. Meanwhile, Israel remains outside the US-Iran nuclear negotiations, fueling concerns that Washington and Tehran might reach an agreement without Israeli input, potentially leaving Israel vulnerable.

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are actively preparing for a potential resumption of hostilities with Iran. Weekly operational plans are reviewed, and Military Intelligence is continuously updating its target bank. While the IDF acknowledges the heavy toll the recent war took on Iran, they do not believe the regime or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are on the verge of collapse. Instead, rehabilitation efforts are already underway. A senior security official indicated that Mojtaba Khamenei is intensely focused on seeking revenge for his father's death.

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the working assumption is that Mojtaba Khamenei, whose father quite literally “died i