Italy's new electoral law favors center-right only with Vannacci's party

Italy's proposed electoral law, dubbed "Stabilicum," could significantly alter the political landscape, with simulations suggesting it would benefit the center-right coalition, but only if it includes the party of controversial general Roberto Vannacci, "Futuro nazionale."

According to analysis by YouTrend, if Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's center-right coalition runs without Vannacci's party, the "Campo largo" coalition, which includes Italia Viva, would emerge as the primary beneficiary of the new electoral system. This scenario suggests the Campo largo would secure more seats than under the current Rosatellum law.

However, the dynamics shift dramatically with Vannacci's inclusion. In a scenario where the center-right incorporates "Futuro nazionale," the coalition is projected to win 48.5% of the vote, translating to 222 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 113 in the Senate under the Stabilicum. This represents a substantial gain compared to the 204 seats and 98 in the Senate they would secure with the Rosatellum law.

Conversely, the Campo largo coalition, even with Italia Viva, would be limited to 44.7% of the vote, resulting in 160 seats in the Chamber and 77 in the Senate under the Stabilicum. This outcome highlights the pivotal role Vannacci's party could play in determining the electoral success of the center-right.