Jackson arrives at Villa: What the new signing offers as Watkins nears exit

Aston Villa has completed the signing of Nicolas Jackson for a potential £65 million, signaling a major squad overhaul. This move coincides with Ollie Watkins' likely departure to Saudi Pro League club Al-Hilal, ending his six-year tenure at Villa Park.

Jackson, 25, arrives at a club already experiencing considerable change. Key players like Morgan Rogers, Ezri Konsa, Youri Tielemans, and Lucas Digne have departed this summer. The team's struggles were evident in their opening-day 4-0 loss to Brighton, exacerbated by injuries to key forwards like Watkins, Tammy Abraham, and 17-year-old Brian Madjo. Emiliano Buendia even led the line in their recent match.

The arrival of Jackson, who becomes Villa's record signing, provides manager Unai Emery with a specialist striker. However, statistics indicate Jackson is not a direct replacement for Watkins. Last season, Jackson scored 11 goals and provided three assists in 1,320 minutes for Bayern Munich, averaging 1.0 goal involvements per 90 minutes. Watkins, over a much longer period, recorded 21 goals and five assists in 3,837 minutes for Villa, averaging 0.6 per 90.

Further analysis shows Jackson generated more attacking opportunities, averaging 3.8 shots per 90 compared to Watkins' 2.6. His expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes was also higher at 0.7, versus Watkins' 0.5. Jackson also averaged more touches in the opposition box. Since January 2020, only Erling Haaland has a higher non-penalty xG per 90 minutes in the Premier League than Jackson's 0.55.

Despite these numbers, Jackson's finishing has drawn scrutiny. In two Premier League seasons with Chelsea, he scored 14 goals from an xG of 18.7 in 2023-24 and 10 from 12.3 xG the previous campaign. He converted 18 of 61 big chances. Watkins, while converting 24 of 73 big chances since joining Villa, has also missed opportunities. Last season's data suggests a negligible difference in conversion rates, but Watkins played significantly more minutes, starting 43 matches compared to Jackson's 15 starts in 34 appearances. Jackson's substitute-heavy role could skew his per-90-minute statistics.