Jan Malmborg: The lukewarm interest in Svante Arrhenius's climate research cost us dearly

Europe is currently experiencing severe heatwaves, with authorities struggling and media filled with images of burning forests and villages. This has prompted reflection on whether the escalating climate catastrophe could have been avoided.

One potential turning point, according to this opinion piece, was in June 1896. Swedish physics professor Knut Ångström traveled to Tenerife to conduct experiments, aiming to challenge his rival, Svante Arrhenius. Arrhenius, a professor at Stockholm University, had earlier that year presented his climate model, which posited that the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere controls Earth's temperature.

Arrhenius had a difficult year in 1895, seeking solace in his work after his wife left him. He undertook tens of thousands of calculations based on Samuel Langley's measurements of heat radiation between the moon and Earth. These calculations, completed on Christmas Eve 1895, resulted in a table detailing how atmospheric carbon dioxide levels influence air temperature at various latitudes. An exhausted Arrhenius described the work as an "unbelievably insignificant question" that had cost him a year of labor.

However, Ångström apparently did not consider the matter insignificant. He saw an opportunity to discredit his competitor, believing carbon dioxide played no role in Earth's temperature. His journey to Tenerife was intended to prove this. His article, published in December 1900 in the prominent German scientific journal Annalen der Physik, was based partly on his Tenerife measurements and a flawed laboratory experiment. This publication, the author argues, sealed the fate of Arrhenius's climate model, despite Arrhenius's attempts to respond and modify his findings. It would take until the 1950s for American and Swedish scientists to confirm Arrhenius's initial conclusions.

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It is completely unbelievable that such an insignificant question has cost me a whole year's work.