Jang Dong-hyuk's Deception Fueled by Fraud Claims

A recent column in Dong-A Ilbo sharply criticizes a politician's use of statistical claims to allege election fraud, labeling the arguments as "pseudo-statistics" and "deception." The article focuses on remarks made by Jang Dong-hyuk, a representative from the People Power Party, who claimed that the identical vote counts for two candidates in a specific district during early voting were as improbable as winning the lottery multiple times.

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The probability of such a result is only one in 590 million, which is more difficult than winning the lottery.

Jang reportedly stated that the probability of such a tie was one in 590 million, and that multiple instances of this occurring in different regions were "supernatural phenomena." The column refutes this by drawing a parallel to lottery odds. It explains that while the chance of a single person winning the lottery is one in millions, the probability of multiple winners arises from the sheer volume of tickets sold. In the case of the lottery mentioned, with 121.1 billion won in sales, over 121 million tickets were purchased, making multiple winners statistically normal.

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This is a calculation method that is the same as the nonsensical 'rotten' calculation method that 12 people simultaneously win the lottery first prize, which is impossible in the current universe.

The article argues that Jang's calculation method is fundamentally flawed, similar to how conspiracy theorists misapply statistics. It cites Professor Huh Myung-hoe, a statistics expert, who explained that "twin vote" phenomena are not statistically unusual. Huh noted that in Incheon, there are many combinations of administrative districts, and a small percentage might naturally have similar political and social leanings, leading to similar vote counts. He added that in the Gwangju-Jeonnam region, the higher number of possible district combinations makes such occurrences even more probable.

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The 'twin vote' phenomenon is not statistically unusual at all.

Furthermore, the column points out that similar "twin vote" instances occurred in the 2022 local elections, which the People Power Party won overwhelmingly. Applying Jang's logic to those cases would yield astronomically low probabilities, yet no one alleged fraud then. The article concludes that "pseudo-statistics" are a favored weapon of election fraud conspiracy theorists, allowing them to package misinformation as science and easily mislead the public. It suggests Jang's embrace of these flawed arguments indicates a deep entanglement with such theories.

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Pseudo-statistics are the most favored weapon of election fraud conspiracy theorists.