Jérôme Fourquet: Green Parties Have Not Gained Electorally From Climate Disasters

France’s record-breaking summer has heightened public concern about the environment, but the surge has not brought an obvious electoral dividend for the Greens, according to Jérôme Fourquet.

In an analysis published by the Jean Jaurès Foundation and Le Figaro, Fourquet considers whether heatwaves and their consequences could affect the 2027 presidential election. The summer brought extreme temperatures, almost-dry waterways and devastating forest fires in several regions, along with violent storms, tornadoes and other severe weather.

Those events led some observers and commentators to predict a major shift in public opinion. Early polling appeared to show a clear rise in environmental concern. An Ifop-Fiducial survey for Sud Radio found that the proportion of respondents who considered the environment and the fight against climate change a priority rose from 47% in January to 64% at the end of August.

The analysis nevertheless questions whether the change represents a lasting shift or another temporary reaction after a summer of extreme heat. Fourquet’s central point, as presented in the article, is that recent climate and ecological trauma has not benefited the environmental political formation in electoral terms.