July 2026 Poll: Opposition Candidates Outperform Erdoğan in Hypothetical Runoffs

A July 2026 poll by Gündemar Research suggests a significant shift in Turkish presidential politics, with leading opposition figures poised to outperform President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in a potential second-round election. The survey indicates that if the presidential election goes to a runoff, Mansur Yavaş, Ekrem İmamoğlu, and Özgür Özel would all secure more votes than Erdoğan.

The research, conducted between July 28-31, 2026, involved 2,300 participants across 60 provinces using Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) and Computer-Assisted Web Interviewing (CAWI) methods. When participants were asked who they would vote for in a hypothetical second-round election, the results showed a strong preference for the opposition.

In a direct matchup, Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş garnered 60.17% of the vote compared to Erdoğan's 39.83%, a lead of over 20 percentage points. New Party Chairman Özgür Özel also showed strong performance, securing 58.73% against Erdoğan's 41.27%, a difference of more than 17 percentage points. Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, currently facing legal challenges, polled at 57.47% against Erdoğan's 42.53%, indicating a lead of nearly 15 percentage points.

These findings suggest a challenging electoral landscape for President Erdoğan in 2026. The poll, which distributed undecided, uninformed, and protest votes, highlights the potential strength of the united opposition against the incumbent. The results are based on Gündemar Research's "Turkey Agenda Research" for July 2026.