Keeping up with UP: TMC meltdown and future of regional parties

India's regional parties are grappling with internal turmoil and splits in the wake of electoral losses, a trend exemplified by the recent fragmentation of the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal. This development has fueled speculation about similar divisions within other significant regional forces, such as the Samajwadi Party (SP), which is a key player in Uttar Pradesh politics.

Despite assurances from SP chief Akhilesh Yadav that the party is united and determined to resist such attempts, Uttar Pradesh deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya has hinted at potential defections of SP members of Parliament. This follows claims by Om Prakash Rajbhar, an ally of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which were initially met with skepticism. Reports suggest that some SP MPs may have been offered incentives, while Yadav remains focused on the upcoming state assembly polls.

The Samajwadi Party, the third-largest party in Parliament, achieved its strongest performance in the 2024 national elections, securing 37 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh. This success contributed to a decline in BJP seats in the state, from 62 in 2019 to 33, forcing the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to rely on allies like the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) to form a government. The NDA secured 293 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, just above the majority mark.

The political landscape is further complicated by recent defections within the Shiv Sena (UBT), with two MPs joining the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena faction. This follows a larger exodus of 20 TMC MPs to the newly formed Nationalist Citizen Party of India (NCPI), an unrecognised party allied with the NDA. These shifts in party allegiances are occurring against the backdrop of the NDA government's efforts to pass the delimitation bill, a measure that requires a two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha. Both the TMC and Shiv Sena (UBT) had previously played a role in defeating a constitutional amendment bill for delimitation earlier this year.