Kharif sowing trails last year’s pace despite rainfall revival in early July

Despite a revival in rainfall during the first ten days of July, India's kharif sowing season continues to fall behind last year's progress. As of July 10, farmers had planted crops across 350.85 lakh hectares, marking a significant 16% decrease compared to the previous year. Although the gap narrowed from a 21% deficit a week prior due to temporary rainfall improvements, experts warn this recovery might be short-lived.

Following widespread showers that reduced the country's cumulative rainfall deficit from 40% to 14%, monsoon activity has weakened once more. This has pushed the nationwide rainfall shortfall to 18%. The India Meteorological Department forecasts subdued rainfall over key agricultural regions, including the northwestern plains, west-central India, and south Peninsular India, for the next six to seven days. This outlook raises concerns about potential fresh delays in sowing operations.

Several critical agricultural areas, such as eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Punjab, parts of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Telangana, and Karnataka, are still experiencing rainfall deficits exceeding 20%, with some facing shortfalls as high as 47%. Garima Jain, CEO at Torq Commodities, noted that rising temperatures and declining soil moisture in key regions like Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Gujarat could negatively impact crop yields. Current conditions suggest a likely reduction in acreage for pulses, millets, and oilseeds, with the upcoming seven to ten days' rainfall forecast being a major concern.

The sowing data already reflects these challenges. Pulses acreage is down 23.3% year-on-year to 2.3 million hectares, while oilseeds are sown over 7.1 million hectares, a 21% decline. Coarse cereals acreage fell 22.5% to 5.3 million hectares, and cotton acreage decreased by 15.3% to 9.2 million hectares. Rice is the only major foodgrain showing signs of recovery, with acreage at 4.8 million hectares, still 8.6% below last year but 17.3% above the normal area due to improved rainfall in eastern India.

The Monsoon Core Zone, a vital area for India's rain-fed agriculture stretching from Gujarat across central India to West Bengal, faces particular concern. This region is crucial for crops like soybean, pulses, and millets. Any prolonged dry spell during the peak sowing window could further reduce acreage and begin to affect yield prospects later in the season.

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Lower rainfall in key agricultural regions of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat since July 8 means rising temperatures and declining soil moisture could start weighing on crop yields. Based on current conditions, we can confidently say acreage under pulses, millets and oilseeds is likely to decline. The bigger concern is the rainfall forecast for the next seven to 10 days.