Labor support slides in Tasmania despite weak Liberal government

Tasmania's Labor party is facing a significant electoral slump, with recent polling data from DemosAu revealing that support has dropped to its lowest point in over a year. Just over one in five voters would cast their ballot for Labor if a state election were held today. This marks a concerning trend for a party that once dominated Tasmanian politics, as its primary vote has consistently remained below 25% since the last election.

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Just over one in five voters say they'd vote for Labor if a state election were to happen today.

This decline occurs even as the incumbent Liberal government, now in its 12th year, grapples with its own challenges. The Liberals are planning substantial cuts to state services, have mishandled a major infrastructure project, and recently saw two ministers relegated to the backbench due to integrity concerns. Despite these vulnerabilities in the opposition, Labor has struggled to gain traction.

Under the leadership of Josh Willie, who took over from Dean Winter, the party has attempted to regroup. Willie, a former teacher, has centered his platform on education, advocating for five-day kindergarten and campaigning to protect TAFE. Labor has also focused its Question Time efforts on key issues like education, health, and cuts to the state service. Furthermore, the party has made strides in improving its relationships with the Greens and other crossbench members, a collaboration that proved fruitful in a recent case involving a government minister's legal issues, ultimately leading to her move to the backbench.

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It's a rather poor showing from a party whose main opponent is a 12-year-old minority Liberal government that is planning to cut millions from the state service, screwed up the delivery of a major infrastructure project and just had two of its ministers pushed to the backbench over integrity concerns.

Labor also recently held its first state conference in seven years, an event that allowed rank-and-file members to engage with party leadership. While the party has faced internal drama surrounding the leadership change, it appears to be working towards presenting a united front as it seeks to become the alternative government in Tasmania.

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Under Mr Willie, with Ella Haddad acting as the main liaison, Labor has greatly improved its relationships with the Greens and members of the crossbench.