Lee Jun-seok calls Jang Dong-hyuk's '1 in 590 million' vote claim 'sorcery'

Lee Jun-seok, leader of South Korea's New Reform Party, has strongly criticized a statistical claim made by Jang Dong-hyuk, a leader of the ruling People Power Party. Jang asserted that the probability of two candidates receiving the exact same number of votes in a specific election district was one in 590 million.

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If you're going to wield probability as a weapon, you must first disclose the formula.

Lee dismissed Jang's assertion as "sorcery rather than calculation," demanding that Jang publicly disclose the formula behind his claim. He suggested that if the number originated from YouTube, it would signify that the party's standards have devolved to the level of a YouTube algorithm. Lee further argued that presenting conclusions without the underlying distribution models is irresponsible and abandons scientific thinking.

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If the figure you mentioned came from YouTube, it's an admission that one party's standards have become the same as a YouTube algorithm.

To counter Jang's claim, Lee cited Huh Myung-hoe, an honorary professor of statistics at Korea University and father of Fields Medalist Huh Joon-yi. Huh Myung-hoe reportedly stated that it is entirely predictable for one district to have identical vote counts by chance when considering all possible combinations across the entire city of Incheon through direct simulation. His assessment was that the outcome was "not surprising."

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To present only the conclusion without the distribution model is not calculation, but sorcery.

Lee also expressed concern that such unverified statistics, used as a weapon by a political leader, could exacerbate societal conflict. He emphasized that statistics should be a tool for resolving doubts, not for raising them. Lee concluded by stating that Jang must either reveal his calculation method or retract his statement, framing it as a minimum requirement for public officials and politics.

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It is not surprising to have one district with perfectly matching votes when considering all combinations in Incheon.