Likud fears new right-wing parties, alliances could split vote below electoral threshold - analysis

Senior officials within Israel's Likud party are expressing growing concern over the potential fragmentation of the right-wing vote, fearing that new parties and alliances could prevent them from reaching the electoral threshold. This anxiety is particularly focused on the potential formation of a new party led by retired Maj.-Gen. Ofer Winter.

Winter is expected to announce his party's establishment as early as next Tuesday. Reports indicate he has been in talks with Yoseph Haddad about joining forces, a prospect that deeply troubles Likud leadership. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly facing pressure to consider reserving a spot on the Likud list for Haddad, not necessarily for his contribution to Likud, but to prevent him from bolstering Winter's nascent party.

Likud strategists believe that if Winter runs alone and fails to gain significant support, he might be persuaded to withdraw or join Bezalel Smotrich's party. However, the potential partnership with Haddad, who has a notable supporter base and public profile, could significantly strengthen Winter's position. Such a scenario would make it much harder for Likud to convince Winter to drop out, potentially leading to wasted votes below the electoral threshold.

The discussions between Winter and Haddad are reportedly advanced, with Haddad being considered for the second spot on the list and seeking to place three additional candidates in the top 10. Haddad is also behind an application to register a party called Israel Amitza. Winter is working to finalize his slate, with activist Lali Deri also in talks to join. The potential merger between Winter and Haddad is seen as a significant threat to Likud's electoral dominance on the right.