Long-predicted El Niño has begun, expected to peak this winter

The highly anticipated El Niño weather phenomenon has officially commenced, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced. This recurring climate pattern, which typically occurs every two to seven years, involves the warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean due to shifts in wind patterns. El Niño acts as a global 'heat turbo,' driving up average temperatures and triggering extreme weather across various regions.

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El Niño works like a heat turbo, driving up the average temperature worldwide and causing extreme weather in different regions.

Scientists have been closely monitoring the situation, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) previously estimating an 80% chance of El Niño's return from this summer. The NOAA has now confirmed that the threshold has been crossed, with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean measuring 0.5 degrees Celsius above average. The phenomenon is expected to intensify in the coming months, with a peak predicted during the autumn and winter seasons.

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It is quite possible that we will have weather blockages again.

There is a significant possibility that this El Niño could be exceptionally strong. The NOAA estimates a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño occurring between November and January. Such an event would place it among the most powerful recorded since measurements began in 1950. The WMO has already warned that preparations should be made for potentially severe impacts, including intensified droughts, heavy rainfall, and increased risks of heatwaves on both land and sea.

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We must prepare for a potentially strong El Niño, which will worsen drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves, both on land and in the ocean.

While the specific effects on regions like Belgium remain uncertain, with meteorologists suggesting potential for prolonged dry spells or persistent rain due to weather blockages, the global implications are clear. El Niño is projected to exacerbate existing conditions, leading to drought in parts of Africa, Australia, and India, while increasing the risk of flooding in countries like Ecuador and Peru. The last El Niño event concluded in early 2024, contributing to 2023 and 2024 being the warmest years on record, underscoring the significant impact of these cycles when combined with climate change.

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This would make it one of the largest in the history of measurements, which began in 1950.