Mahmoud Abbas's election promise: Democratization or political preservation?

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has announced that legislative elections will take place on November 28. While some have welcomed this as a potential opening for democracy in the Palestinian territories, the timing and motives behind the announcement invite scrutiny, prompting questions about whether these elections represent genuine democratization or merely political preservation.

These elections are long overdue, with the last legislative elections in 2006 resulting in a Hamas victory, which initiated a fierce Hamas-Fatah power struggle and an end to general elections. For the past two decades, Abbas has largely ruled the PA-administered West Bank by decree, despite numerous past promises of fresh elections that have never materialized. Recent skepticism is fueled by the postponement of legislative and presidential elections initially scheduled for May and July 2021. Abbas cited Israel's refusal to allow East Jerusalem residents to vote as the justification, but critics point to internal Fatah infighting, particularly the potential challenges posed by rivals Marwan Barghouti and Mohammed Dahlan, as the true drivers of these postponements.

The current announcement's timing is also questionable. Some analysts suggest it is an attempt to demonstrate popular approval amidst growing Hamas popularity in the West Bank since the October 7 terror attack. Others believe the elections serve as an opportunity for Abbas to manage internal Fatah rivals and consolidate his authority as domestic pressure intensifies. The announcement also comes just days before the EU’s second meeting of the Palestine Donor Group, raising the possibility that this apparent move toward democratization is an effort to improve the PA's international standing and secure donor support amid financial hardship.

The issue of Hamas's potential participation also presents a fundamental paradox. Under the current electoral framework, candidates must accept the PLO's commitments under the Oslo Accords, a condition that would effectively exclude Hamas. If Hamas is prevented from contesting, many will perceive the elections as illegitimate. Conversely, if Hamas is allowed to run, it poses a significant challenge to Fatah's dominance and Abbas's authority, potentially leading to further instability or a repeat of past electoral outcomes.