Make no mistake: Hormuz wars are about Iran nuclear weapons future threat - analysis

The ongoing confrontations between Iran and the United States in the Strait of Hormuz are intrinsically tied to the future of Iran's nuclear weapons program, according to analysis. While control of the vital waterway and financial considerations play a role, the core issue revolves around Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Previous military actions by Israel and the U.S. in June 2025 and early 2026 reportedly pushed Iran's nuclear program back from being months away from a weapon to multiple years away. However, a significant concern remains Iran's stockpile of over 400 kilograms of 60% highly enriched uranium, which, despite being covered in rubble, is still considered potentially dangerous.

Iran appears to be leveraging the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz to pressure the Trump administration. The goal is to gain concessions on the nuclear issue, essentially using economic pressure at Hormuz to secure a more favorable post-war deal following earlier nuclear concessions made mid-conflict.

Since the initial agreement, Iran has engaged in strategic maneuvers regarding the strait. Initially, Iran questioned whether the strait was fully open, then suggested it would be open only to those paying significant fees. After a temporary retreat, Iran began attacking ships near Oman that had not registered with Tehran, leading to modest retaliatory strikes by U.S. forces. These actions aim to deter potential aggression, particularly from Israel against Hezbollah.