Mapping the Iran war’s strikes on Gulf energy, and what comes next for oil

The war over Iran has created a sharp contradiction for US oil majors: soaring prices are delivering billions of dollars in earnings, while the conflict is putting their longstanding Gulf investments and future projects at greater risk.

ExxonMobil and Chevron reported combined second-quarter earnings of more than $26.6 billion earlier this month. Brent crude climbed about 22 percent after the war began on February 28, rising from $72 to $88 a barrel as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global energy flows.

The strategic waterway, which carried one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas before the war, remains largely closed to commercial traffic. Iran and Oman agreed last week on a temporary maritime route, but Iran says the strait will not fully reopen until the United States meets its commitments under a lapsed interim peace deal. Longer-term arrangements for security and management remain unresolved.

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Overall we expect US companies’ share of gas supplies from the region to fall by around 40 percent this year compared to last year and the share of oil supplies to drop by 30-35 percent.

Rahul Choudhary, vice president of upstream research at Rystad Energy, said the conflict had already reduced the amount of oil and gas US companies draw from the Gulf. He estimated that their share of regional gas supplies would fall by about 40 percent this year compared with last year, while their share of oil supplies would drop by 30 to 35 percent.

Higher commodity prices have softened the immediate financial impact. But Choudhary said prolonged disruption could delay major projects and weigh on the companies’ future growth plans. Chevron has relatively limited exposure to Arab Gulf supply disruptions, with the region accounting for 5 percent of its global output. ExxonMobil faces greater exposure through operations in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, which together account for 20 percent of its global equity upstream supply. Its upstream earnings fell by about $1.3 billion in the first half of 2026 from a year earlier because of lower Middle East volumes, although higher prices offset the shortfall.

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We already saw in the first half of 2026, the company’s upstream earnings drop by around $1.3bn compared to the first half of 2025, due to lower upstream volumes from the Middle East. However, the shortfall was covered well by higher commodity prices.