Marco Rubio brokers historic Israel-Lebanon peace deal, recognizing sovereignty since 1983

A groundbreaking agreement signed on June 26 marks a significant shift in Israeli-Lebanese relations, with both nations recognizing each other as sovereign neighbors and committing to end their state of war. This mutual recognition has not been formally acknowledged by a Lebanese government since May 1983, a deal that ultimately collapsed within a year.

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the first clause of the Trilateral Framework, signed on June 26, in which Israel and Lebanon recognize each other as sovereign neighbors with the right to live in peace and commit to ending the state of war between them.

The core of this Trilateral Framework agreement, which establishes the right of both nations to live in peace, is being hailed by some observers as potentially more impactful than the Abraham Accords. While the maritime agreement between the two countries was praised, it did not involve such direct, simultaneous governmental acknowledgment. This new deal saw both governments sign in the same room, a stark contrast to previous diplomatic efforts where American officials shuttled between separate rooms to avoid direct Lebanese acknowledgment.

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A Lebanese government has not put that on paper since May 1983. That deal lasted barely a year before Beirut, hard-pressed by Damascus, walked away. The 2022 maritime agreement everyone praised at the time didn't come close. American officials shuttled between two rooms precisely so the Lebanese side would never have to acknowledge us. This time, both governments signed in one room.

Despite the agreement's significance, Hezbollah has rejected it, labeling it "null." However, an analysis suggests the group's opposition may stem from weakness rather than strength. Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah has warned that the Lebanese state cannot enforce the agreement without risking civil war. Yet, the article posits that a party capable of quietly dismantling such a deal would likely not resort to public threats of burning the house down.

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I'd take the threat more seriously if it came from strength. A party that could still quietly kill this deal wouldn't be promising to burn the house down over it.

The author argues that Hezbollah is significantly weakened, having sold its community the idea that resistance ensured safety, a narrative buried by heavy casualties in a recent war. Furthermore, Iran, a key backer, emerged from its recent conflict with Washington diminished and distracted. The article concludes that the Shia south, a Hezbollah stronghold, lies in ruins, with reconstruction funds in Beirut contingent on the agreement's implementation, suggesting Hezbollah's power to obstruct is waning.

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Hezbollah is broken. For 20 years, the party sold its own community a single idea: that the resistance kept them safe and the Lebanese state did not. The war that started in February buried it. Hezbollah took casualties, but it still won't put a number to.