Marco Rubio Gains Momentum in Race for 2028 Republican Presidential Nomination

Senator Marco Rubio is emerging as a strong contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, showing significant gains in recent polling that place him nearly neck-and-neck with Vice President JD Vance.

Rubio, who has held a high profile in recent U.S. administrations, particularly regarding foreign policy on Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran, has seen his support surge. A poll from August 2025 indicated Vance with 52% support among Republicans, while Rubio garnered only 9%. However, by July 2026, Vance's support had dropped to 39%, while Rubio's had climbed to 38%, a dramatic shift in just under a year.

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the Republican primary has changed significantly since February, when 52% supported Vance and 20% Rubio; now potential candidates for 2028 compete on similar terms.

This shift suggests Rubio's growing prominence is directly impacting Vance's standing. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is a distant third in the polls with 5% support, and 9% of Republican voters remain undecided. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that the Republican primary landscape has changed considerably since February, when Vance led Rubio 52% to 20%.

Further analysis by Kimball indicates Rubio has found particular strength among Republican voters over 50, who favor him by a 6% margin over Vance. Conversely, voters under 50 lean towards Vance. The data comes from a national Emerson College Polling study conducted July 19-20, 2026, surveying 1,100 likely voters with a margin of error of ±2.9 percentage points.

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Rubio has found support among Republican voters over 50 years old, who favor him with a 6% advantage over Vance (41% to 36%), while those under 50 favor the vice president with an 11% split (37% to 26%).