Marine Le Pen Would Beat All Rivals in Second Round Despite Corruption Conviction, Poll Shows

Far-right French leader Marine Le Pen is poised to defeat all her rivals in a hypothetical second round of the 2027 presidential election, a poll released a day after she announced her candidacy and was convicted of embezzling public funds revealed. The Ifop-Fiducial survey for Le Figaro and LCI places the National Rally (RN) leader at 36% in the first round, a four-point increase from two weeks prior.

Le Pen confirmed she is running despite facing legal challenges, as she plans to appeal the Paris Court of Appeal's conviction to the Supreme Court. The poll attributes her surge to the combined effect of her televised candidacy announcement, watched by over seven million people, and the mobilization of her voter base. In all analyzed second-round scenarios, Le Pen is projected to secure between 54% and 55% of the vote against centrist candidates like Gabriel Attal or Gérard Philippe, and could reach 70% against Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise.

The survey also indicates Le Pen has narrowed the gap with her protégé and RN president, Jordan Bardella, who had gained ground recently amid uncertainty over her political future. Le Pen has re-established herself as the primary electoral figure for the far-right, while Bruno Retailleau and Éric Zemmour are losing support.

Previously, the Court of Appeal sentenced Le Pen to three years in prison for the case involving parliamentary assistants of the former National Front (now RN). Two years of the sentence were suspended, and one year was to be served under house arrest with an electronic tag. The ruling also includes a 45-month ban from holding public office, with 30 months suspended and 15 months already served, clearing her path to the presidential race next spring. The Supreme Court stated it could issue its ruling on Le Pen's case by early April 2027, before the presidential elections scheduled for April 18 and May 2.