Marinus will break energy 'deadlock' hobbling Tasmania, economist says

Tasmania's energy sector development is stuck in a "deadlock" that the multi-billion-dollar Marinus Link interconnector across Bass Strait can break, according to economist Saul Eslake. His report, commissioned by Clean Energy Tasmania, defends the project against recent analyses that questioned its viability amid evolving technology and market conditions.

Eslake's defense comes as the project faces increasing scrutiny. A recent analysis suggested the business case for Marinus Link is becoming unviable, and the chair of the Climate Change Authority, Matt Kean, has also raised concerns. These doubts arise partly due to interest from companies like Firmus, a Singapore-based AI infrastructure firm, which is planning AI data center developments in northern Tasmania, securing 100 megawatts of power.

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It will help break the deadlock that's existed in Tasmania for more than a decade.

Despite acknowledging the project has been "poorly sold" by governments, Eslake maintains Marinus Link serves both national and Tasmanian interests. He argues that the interconnector will boost investor confidence in Tasmania's energy supply, particularly for energy-intensive industries. The current "catch-22" situation, Eslake explained, is that Tasmania struggles to attract such industries without more generation capacity, while new energy generators are hesitant to invest without guaranteed demand.

Marinus Link aims to provide a 750-megawatt cable connection to the National Electricity Market, with plans for a second cable in the future. This, Eslake contends, will create opportunities for both new energy demand and supply. Tasmania's existing 500-megawatt interconnector, Basslink, failed in 2015, triggering a prolonged energy crisis. While Marinus Link's costs have escalated since its initial proposal, attracting criticism over transparency, stage one is projected for completion by 2030.

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The govern