Marketers Optimistic Aviation Fuel Price Will Drop to Pre-Iran War Level

Aviation fuel marketers have assured airline operators that the price of Jet A1 fuel is expected to decrease significantly, potentially returning to levels seen before the Iran-US war began in February 2026. At that time, aviation fuel averaged around N900 per liter.

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Soon the price of aviation fuel would come down to where it was before the Iran war started, noting that Dangote Refinery has been reducing the cost of petroleum products, jet fuel inclusive.

The conflict caused a drastic surge in prices, pushing them above N1,700 and eventually reaching over N3,300 per liter. This sharp increase disrupted flight schedules and operations worldwide, severely impacting airlines' business plans by multiplying operational costs. In Nigeria, the cost of a one-hour flight escalated from under N2 million to N8 million.

Industry leaders, including George Uriesi, Managing Director/CEO of Ibom Air, confirmed that airlines were compelled to seek loans to manage the soaring fuel expenses. However, marketers are optimistic that falling crude oil prices and reduced refinery prices will soon be reflected in the market.

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The drastic reduction of prices will not be over night. We are coming to where the prices were before February hostilities in the Middle East. It will get there because Dangote is reducing prices every week.

Chris Ndulue, Chairman of Ndano Energy, a prominent aviation oil marketing company, stated that while prices may not drop below the pre-war N900 mark due to subsidy removal, the downward trend is driven by factors like Dangote Refinery's consistent price reductions. He explained that competition forces marketers to align their prices with refinery costs, emphasizing that marketers are not the primary cause of price hikes but rather respond to market realities.

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Market realities will force everyone to the right pricing. market realities did not allow airlines to increase their fares very high to cushion the high cost of aviation fuel. There is a level you can get and you will not increase fares again because you will experience significant passenger drop.

Ndulue further noted that market forces naturally correct themselves, citing airlines' experience of reducing airfares when passenger numbers dropped due to high ticket prices. He asserted that aviation fuel prices are declining, and this trend will also lead to lower ticket costs, as evidenced by recent travel experiences.

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If the price goes down, we sell at lower price; if it goes up, we sell at higher price.