Mecca pact: Warning only for those who plan to strike first

Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement on August 7 in Mecca, Saudi Arabia. The pact declares that an armed attack on one signatory is an attack on all. Within 72 hours, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu contacted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, advocating for closer alignment with Greece, the Greek Cypriot administration, India, and the United Arab Emirates.

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very negative development for Indian interests

India's former foreign secretary characterized the agreement as a "very negative development for Indian interests." The speed of this reaction is more telling than the document itself. The agreement's operative trigger is an armed attack on a member, carrying no obligation to intervene elsewhere or assert territorial claims. A state must be reserving the option of striking one of the three signatories to feel menaced by such an instrument.

Israel's response highlights this point. An official quoted by the Ynet news website dismissed the "Iran rationale" and insisted the alliance targets Israel, urging a significant force-building program in response. However, nothing changed regarding Israel's territorial security on August 7; no signatory has threatened Israel or can strike it relying on the agreement. What has changed is the cost of operating freely in other nations' airspace. Following the strike on Doha, Gulf capitals concluded that sovereignty alone was no longer a sufficient shield.

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the alliance is aimed at Israel

Türkiye's calculation appears pragmatic. Israel has spent the past year signaling potential threats to Ankara. In February, former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett stated that Türkiye is the "new Iran" and that President Erdoğan seeks to "encircle Israel." Former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant urged Western governments to reconsider arms sales to NATO's second-largest army. These concerns are not fringe; Israel's Nagel Committee, a government-commissioned defense panel, concluded in January 2025 that a Turkish-aligned Syria could pose a greater danger than the Iranian threat.

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Türkiye is the new Iran and that Erdoğan seeks 'to encircle Israel'

India's alarm follows a similar pattern, with recent history. In May 2025, after 26 tourists were killed in Indian-occupied Kashmir, India struck targets inside Pakistan without publicly presenting evidence linking the attack to the Pakistani state. This cross-border action underscores the sensitivity to regional power dynamics and potential threats.

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a Turkish-aligned Syria could become more dangerous than the Iranian threat itself