Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election poll: AfD gains, SPD also up

With the state election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern just a quarter away, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party maintains a clear lead in a new poll. The right-wing populist party gained one percentage point since the last survey three months ago, reaching 35% support.

The Social Democratic Party (SPD), led by Minister-President Manuela Schwesig, also saw an increase, gaining two points to stand at 28%. However, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) experienced a decline, falling to 10% support, a two-point drop. The Left Party improved slightly to 11%, up one point, and the new BSW party could potentially enter the state parliament with 6% support, a one-point increase.

According to the poll commissioned by the "Nordkurier" newspaper and conducted by Insa, the Green Party (4%) and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) (3%) would not currently secure seats in the state parliament. This electoral landscape suggests significant challenges for coalition building. The current red-red government would lose its majority, as would a potential red-black alliance.

The AfD, despite its leading position, would be far from achieving an outright majority to govern alone. The poll, which surveyed 1,000 people online between June 11 and 18, indicates a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Insa notes that voter turnout and party loyalty can fluctuate, making election polls inherently uncertain and reflective only of the sentiment at the time of the survey.