Meteorologist questions Japan's typhoon forecast, says focus remains on potential heavy rain

Japan's Meteorological Agency (JMA) announced the formation of Typhoon Koinu (簡拉維), classifying it as the 20th typhoon of the season. The storm is located at 25.5 degrees North latitude and 124.9 degrees East longitude, moving slowly westward with a central pressure of 998 hPa and maximum sustained winds of 18 meters per second. The JMA upgraded the system, previously designated TD22 near Miyako Island, to typhoon status around noon.

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I don't quite understand what JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) is doing. Did they upgrade it in a hurry because it's close to the Ryukyu Islands?

However, weather analyst Wu Shengyu expressed confusion over the JMA's actions, questioning if the upgrade was rushed due to the storm's proximity to the Ryukyu Islands. Wu noted that the JMA's predicted path for Koinu diverges sharply from that of Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA). Wu believes the CWA's forecast, which suggests a northward loop, is more likely given the current conditions.

Wu stated that even if Koinu is officially recognized as a typhoon, its storm radius is unlikely to reach the boundaries for a maritime warning. Therefore, the possibility of an immediate warning being issued appears low. The primary concern, according to Wu, is not the typhoon itself but the potential for heavy rainfall in Taiwan caused by the strong southwest monsoon axis that the storm might influence.

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The possibility of an immediate warning being issued appears low.

Wu emphasized that the overall forecast trend remains unchanged and urged continued attention to the potential for severe downpours. He indicated that the CWA might activate large-scale heavy rain advisories. The article also includes a disclaimer requiring users to be over 18 to view the content.

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The key point is the heavy rainfall process that may be triggered by the subsequent movement of the southwest monsoon axis over Taiwan; the typhoon itself is secondary.