Mexican analysts slightly improve 2026 growth outlook, but raise inflation forecasts

Private sector analysts have marginally improved their outlook for Mexico's economic growth in 2026, projecting a median GDP increase of 1.2%, up from 1.1% in the previous survey. However, this optimism is tempered by upward revisions to inflation forecasts for both 2026 and 2027.

The latest Citi Expectations Survey reveals that while the 2026 growth forecast saw a slight uptick, expectations for 2027 remained steady at 1.8%. The median forecast for general inflation at the end of 2026 has been raised to 4.35% from 4.30%, with the underlying inflation forecast holding at 4.20%. For 2027, general inflation expectations climbed to 3.90% from 3.80%, while underlying inflation is expected to remain at 3.85%.

In terms of monetary policy, the majority of specialists do not anticipate any changes to the Bank of Mexico's benchmark interest rate during 2026 and 2027. Out of 35 consulted experts, 27 foresee no adjustments in this period. Six believe the next move will occur in 2027, and two anticipate a 25 basis point cut in December 2026. The median expectation for the benchmark rate at the close of both years remains at 6.50%.

The foreign exchange market outlook shows stability, with the consensus maintaining its 2026 year-end exchange rate forecast at 18 pesos per dollar. The expectation for 2027 has seen a slight improvement, moving from 18.58 to 18.50 pesos per dollar.