Mexico's IMEF expects greater fiscal commitment in 2027, no major tax changes

Mexico's fiscal consolidation efforts are expected to see increased commitment in 2027, though significant tax changes are unlikely next year because it is an election year, according to the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF).

"I wouldn't expect more changes this year. There is an expectation that the government could increase fiscal revenues by expanding taxes, but I highly doubt that will happen in this election year," said Víctor Manuel Herrera, president of the National Committee for Economic Studies. He suggested that any new tax measures might be considered for the 2028 economic package.

IMEF also expressed concern over the increasing leverage resulting from the lack of economic activity growth. Herrera noted that current economic growth of around 1% is leading to levels that could compromise the country's investment grade in the medium term. The institute stressed the importance of implementing concrete measures to stimulate economic growth, as the current pace is accelerating debt accumulation.

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I wouldn't expect more changes this year. There is an expectation that the government could increase fiscal revenues by expanding taxes, but I highly doubt that will happen in this election year.

"We should be working towards a deficit below 4%, and we cannot even reach 4% this year. With the low growth we have, it obviously accelerates debt contracting," Herrera explained. IMEF believes the economic package should focus on two key areas: more concrete fiscal consolidation and programs to stimulate growth.

Gabriela Gutiérrez Mora, president of IMEF, commented that the FIFA World Cup had only a marginal and temporary impact on the economy, underscoring the need for sustained investment in infrastructure. The institute also noted that advancing fiscal consolidation without a broader tax reform remains challenging, as highlighted by BBVA, which urges a fundamental tax reform.

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We should be working towards a deficit below 4%, and we cannot even reach 4% this year. With the low growth we have, it obviously accelerates debt contracting.