Michael Winiarski: Neither U.S. nor Iran wants a new major war

The fragile truce between the United States and Iran, established just three weeks ago, is showing significant strain, with both nations accusing each other of violating the terms. The agreement, intended to pave the way for a permanent peace deal through 60 days of negotiations, has yielded no discernible progress.

This breakdown follows an "understanding" or memorandum of understanding signed by President Donald Trump and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf in April. However, the deal failed to address core issues that prompted Trump's initial military action against Iran in February, including its nuclear capabilities, ballistic missiles, and support for regional militias. While the nuclear issue was deferred to future talks, missiles and proxies were not mentioned in the agreement.

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The ceasefire with Iran is probably over.

International experts suggest the deal primarily benefited Iran, allowing the regime to remain in power despite significant military and economic damage. Iran gained leverage by controlling the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global economic artery, and securing the lifting of some U.S. sanctions, particularly on oil exports. The U.S., conversely, failed to achieve any of its stated objectives.

Despite Trump's recent statement that the "ceasefire with Iran is probably over" and calling negotiations with Iranian leaders a "waste of time," the article posits that neither country has a genuine interest in reigniting a full-scale conflict. The current escalations, including Iranian attacks on Saudi and Qatari vessels and U.S. bombings of Iranian facilities, are seen more as a sign that neither side is ready for serious negotiations at this moment, rather than a prelude to all-out war.

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It is a waste of time to negotiate with sick people.