Military Expert: Russia May Mobilize in the Fall

Russia is grappling with a critical shortage of new soldiers, making it increasingly difficult to fill its ranks through voluntary contracts. In the final quarter of last year, the number of Russians signing military contracts dropped by 35 percent. This trend has continued into the first quarter of this year, with an estimated 800 to 1,000 Russians signing contracts daily, a 20 percent decrease compared to the previous year.

This manpower deficit is impacting Russia's military operations on the ground. Advances in Ukraine have slowed considerably, with Russian forces gaining an average of just 3.79 square kilometers per day in June, a pace far below previous offensives. Military expert Lieutenant Colonel Johan Huovinen believes that Russia will likely need to implement another mobilization to achieve decisive results on the battlefield and exert pressure on the front lines.

Reports from Russian exile media suggest that a new mobilization is being discussed within Moscow's corridors of power, though no decision has been made. Such a move would be deeply unpopular among the Russian populace, as evidenced by a surge in online searches for "when will the war in Ukraine end." Huovinen suggests a decision might follow the Russian Duma elections in September. Meanwhile, Russia appears to be concentrating its efforts on capturing more territory in the Donetsk region, with intense fighting around the city of Kostyantynivka.

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To achieve a military decision on the battlefield, it is necessary. It would put pressure on the front,