MOL and Serbia Conclude NIS Shareholding Talks; Analysts Skeptical

Hungarian energy company MOL announced it has successfully concluded negotiations with the Serbian government regarding a shareholding agreement for Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS). The deal, which would see MOL acquire a majority stake in NIS, is still subject to finalization with relevant institutions and sellers.

Serbia's potential involvement hinges on MOL reaching an agreement with Gazprom Neft for the sale of a 56.15% stake in NIS and receiving approval from OFAC. If these conditions are met, Serbia may purchase an additional 5% of NIS shares. The Hungarian side has committed to ensuring the refinery continues its operations as before, according to Serbian Minister of Mining Dubravka Đedović Handanović.

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The first sentence is that a compromise has been reached. The question is what compromise means. So, if we got that the Refinery will work, what did we give? What is the fate of Petrohemija?

However, economic journalist Mijat Lakićević voiced strong doubts about the government's credibility, stating that "every piece of news coming from them causes doubt about its accuracy." He questioned the meaning of "compromise" in the deal, asking what Serbia has conceded if the refinery's operation is guaranteed, and what the future of Petrohemija will be.

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Russians were convinced that with Trump's mediation, they would relatively quickly get out of the conflict in Ukraine and then jointly with the Americans define energy relations differently. Now, American-Russian relations have seriously cooled down, and there is less hope in Russia that the war in Ukraine will end quickly, and therefore they have nothing to wait for in the Balkans in the short term.

Political analyst Dragomir Anđelković suggested that Russia does not genuinely wish to sell NIS, nor does MOL necessarily want to buy more than 51%. He posited that the sale is more political than economic for Russia, influenced by the evolving Russia-US relationship and the conflict in Ukraine. Anđelković noted that if US sanctions remain, NIS's value could decrease, and Russia is concerned about whether proceeds would be accessible.

Anđelković further elaborated on the complex energy dynamics, mentioning reports of a potential joint Russian-American energy company. He believes Russia may be less inclined to delay the NIS sale given the protracted conflict and its continued energy influence in the Balkans. Serbia's reliance on Russian gas, with limited alternatives, remains a significant factor in this geopolitical equation.

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We have an alternative for oil - Russian oil is not necessary for us, but we have no other gas. The regime talks about gas from Azerbaijan, but Azerbaijan has much less gas than it exports and is largely a kind of route for indirect sale of Russian gas. So, for now, we have no other gas besides Russian, and that is not a small lever of influence.