Moody’s reaffirms factors supporting Trinidad and Tobago’s stable outlook

Trinidad and Tobago’s Finance Ministry says Moody’s has reaffirmed the foundations of the country’s stable credit outlook, highlighting its institutions, fiscal buffers and expected recovery in gas production.

The ministry said Moody’s published an Issuer In-Depth credit analysis that expands on the factors supporting and constraining the country’s credit profile. It referred to conclusions reached in June 2026, when Moody’s revised Trinidad and Tobago’s outlook from negative to stable while affirming its Ba2 rating.

Among the financial cushions identified by the ministry are the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund, worth about 25% of gross domestic product, and Treasury cash and cash-equivalent deposits equal to another 7% of GDP. The ministry said these assets provide capacity to absorb shocks, support budget financing and meet debt-service needs during periods of stress.

The analysis also cited comparatively high income levels, measured at US$35,956 on a purchasing-power-parity basis in 2025. The ministry said Moody’s expects domestic gas production to rebound by the end of 2027, driven by the Manatee, Ginger and Aphrodite fields. Output could rise from about 2.5 billion cubic feet per day to 3.0 billion to 3.5 billion by 2028-29, supporting growth, exports and foreign-exchange generation.

The ministry further highlighted Moody’s references to Trinidad and Tobago’s “constitutional system of checks and balances,” “clean political transitions” and “strong voice and accountability” indicators. It also cited reforms involving data transparency, non-oil revenue and transfers and subsidies. Moody’s projected foreign-exchange reserves of US$3.5 billion to US$4.0 billion, while the ministry said actual reserves stood at US$5.7 billion in July 2026, with 6.7 months of import cover.