More heatwaves likely as warmer-than-normal summer forecast

The United Kingdom is bracing for a summer with above-average temperatures and an increased risk of heatwaves, according to the latest forecasts. The Met Office's three-month outlook, released on June 1, indicates a higher probability of hotter weather throughout June, July, and August. This prediction follows a significant late spring heatwave that saw record-breaking temperatures across the UK. Kew Gardens in London recorded an all-time May high of 35.1C, surpassing the previous record from 1944. Heat health alerts were also issued for the first time this year. Long-range forecasts from both the Met Office and MeteoGroup suggest that "significant bursts" of heat are expected not only in the UK but across Europe. The Met Office notes that the likelihood of a hotter summer is now twice as high compared to the 1991-2020 average, aligning with broader climate warming trends. However, predictions for summer rainfall remain uncertain. MeteoGroup anticipates a drier season, particularly in England and Wales during June and July, with Scotland potentially seeing average rainfall. Conversely, the Met Office suggests a slightly higher chance of a wet summer. Recent years have shown increased variability in rainfall patterns, with some regions experiencing drought while others face excessive rain, underscoring the complexity of seasonal forecasts.

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an increased chance of heatwaves and heat-related impacts